Jays = playoffs?

It pains me to say this, but the Toronto Blue Jays’ chances at making the playoffs this year are essentially zero. I know, I know … save for B.J. Ryan, the team is as healthy as its been all season (finally), which means we will get the chance to see what could have been if Toronto had not been hit with so many injuries in 2007. Still, the deficit is simply too big to overcome. At 44-45 entering action Saturday night, the Blue Jays would need to win roughly 51 of their remaining 73 games to put themselves in contention for the AL wild card.

History has shown that an American League team likely needs to reach 95 wins to compete for the final playoff berth. Thus, the Jays would need to finish 51-22 (.699). Last year, Toronto closed out the year going 38-35 over its last 73 contests. In 2005, it was 36-37. The sad reality is that the Blue Jays have never even come close to recording 51 wins in their last 73 games.

The best mark? 46-27. That’s how Toronto closed out the 1985, 1989 and 1993 campaigns. Therefore, the Blue Jays would need to record their best finish in franchise history if they hope to make the playoffs in ’07. Put another way, the Jays would need to do the exact opposite of what they did in 1977, the club’s first year of existence. That team posted a 22-51 record over their final 73 games, the worst such mark in team history. Will the Jays turn the tables and post their best mark ever 30 years later? No, but we’re still going to watch just in case.

Best records over final 73 games:

46-27 – 1985, 1989, 1993
44-29 – 1987, 1988
42-31 – 1992, 1998, 2002

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